Coincidences and Courvoisier

If the Razor-toothed Hawk-god of Evolution came up to me and asked, 'Hey Tom, what would you say is one of the biggest flaws with the human species?', I would give it a think and say, 'Hmm, probably our inability to recognise coincidences.'

Now, the ability to recognise patterns is a great thing, without it, there'd be no science and no technology - this ability is probably one of the best things on that list of things that 'separate us from the animals'. But this instinctual urge to spot patterns is often uncontrollable, even when something genuinely coincidental happens, the instinct to apply patterns stays strong.

Like, say some guy is praying to the heavens for some rain to water his crops. The next day, it rains, and his crops are watered. Several weeks later, his crops are thirsty again, he prays, and the rains come the next day. Then, another several weeks later, his crops are again thirsty, this time, he prays but no rains come the next day. However, instead of dismissing the pattern of prayer=rain, he adds to it, and concludes that his prayer wasn't answered due to some of the actions he performed on that last day - he concludes that his dinner of chilli con carne was hated by the gods, he concludes that the gods hate red shirts, 'cos he was wearing a red shirt while praying last time, etc. etc. He attempts to recreate exactly what was in common between the first two times he prayed, but again, no rains come. This becomes interpreted by the pattern-applier that he should wage a crusade against his red-wearing chilli-eating neighbours.

All the while, those first two rainfalls were coincidental. The man's actions did not influence them in the least.

I'd argue that much of what we believe, (not just what we believe religiously, but all sorts of things), comes from applying patterns to things that were ultimately just coincidental. It leads to us believing many illogical things, and, much worse, believing that our illogical beliefs are superior to the illogical beliefs of others.

We'd be much better off if we were able to instinctively know when something was probably coincidental, and when something was generally a result of an exterior pattern. Alas, the instinct is too strong.

IN OTHER NEWS!

I'm going to a cocktail party tonight. On the London Underground Circle Line. Schmoris Schmohnson has decided to ban alcohol consumption on the Tube, so some guys have had the idea to throw a formal cocktail party on the Circle Line before the ban comes in tomorrow. I've got myself all dressed up in a shirt, tie and waistcoat. Its very tight. I feel like I am corsetted.

IN OTHER NEWS!

Have you heard this thing about the guys near the site of the Heathrow extension alligning themselves up to make a giant "NO" visible for passing planes? About half of the people in those planes will look down and think, ''On'? Why does it say 'on'?'